August 19, 2025

The future comes too fast, and in the wrong order

“The future always comes too fast and in the wrong order.” This quote, often attributed to Alvin Toffler, is one I find striking and have used often, but it rings truer today than ever.

In recent years, I have thought the big global forces like climate change, political polarisation, disruptive technologies etc,. would not show their full impact until the time of my grandchildren. I might comment on them, even make a few predictions, but it would be for them to live through and deal with the outcomes.

Mix of events fast reshaping our present

But Toffler’s thinking has jumped ahead of me. It is clear that the current mix of climate shocks, environmental degradation, geopolitical instability, tariff battles and artificial intelligence is colliding at speed, reshaping our present rather than our distant future.

I wrote seven days ago that tariffs are forcing changes in the leather supply chains and since keeping countries guessing is part of the policy, uncertainty will remain for some years ahead. Together with the collapse in the usage of hides and skins since 1990, it becomes imperative for tanners to find new routes to reinstate raw material back into leather.

The trade routes that keep Italy at the forefront of leather production and the U.S. as a major global hide supplier must be retained. However, in many areas, we see new opportunities for shorter, more traditional supply routes where small and medium-sized abattoirs have their hides collected and know who is tanning them. In countries depleted of tanneries, opportunities must be opened for the development of micro tanneries or modular medium-sized units. The workings of India, Japan (Himeji) and France show indications of how this might work.

I suggested a ten-year plan might be developed: this was taken up on LinkedIn, but to succeed, much wider commitment and a lot of groundwork will be needed.

One major trigger could be the “failed” Plastics Treaty. Despite some recent reporting, this UN project which began in Nairobi in March 2022 is not well known. This must be rectified.

When I was born, the global average CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere was approximately 310 parts per million (ppm). As of August 2025, this concentration is 427–430 ppm. We should remember that before the Industrial Revolution, CO₂ levels were about 280 ppm, having remained stable for the preceding 10,000 years.

Plastic and the rise after Tupperware

Similarly, when I was born, the global plastic industry was just emerging and production was under one million metric tons, but it was the year Earl Tupper launched his polythene-based Tupperware. Today, global plastic production is approximately 436 million metric tons per year (as of 2023). By 2035, the projected global plastic production is expected to reach ~700–900 million metric tons per year with continued acceleration beyond that if no constraints are agreed.

I detailed the issues on plastics last week – check them out here if you did not read it – and both the idea of production constraints and any action on the hazardous chemicals used in them were firmly rejected in Vienna. The requirement for a consensus and classic delaying tactics makes any future conclusion unlikely, even if the meeting is reconvened in the future.

Post-consumer waste

This is despite the fact that post-consumer waste management does not work and microplastics are now to be found everywhere. They are in the atmosphere, in rain and snow, in our bodies from the womb to the grave, from the deepest oceans to the summit of Everest. Five years ago, I did a short course on plastics and was told these microplastics were largely harmless. No one says that now. Plastics, once hailed as a miracle, are now deadly.

If there was ever a time when consumers might rise up against disposable plastics and rediscover the value of natural materials, it is now. Leather, wool, linen, cotton, wood, cork, silk — and even derivatives like linoleum — are not only renewable and long-lasting but deeply human. They connect us to craft, culture and continuity. They are the antithesis of the disposable mindset that has dominated the past half-century.

Even with all the hides and skins made into leather, only a fraction of the plastics are displaced, so we will need old and new allies to take on this war. That is why I continue to recommend the route being taken by a number of leading tanneries in Germany, Spain and Asia who are working with the best next generation biomaterials to sell them alongside leather. They are our allies, not our enemies. Those that are illegitimate and designed to confuse the market with opaque information must be called out, but a few are evolving as worthy partners and making a mark. They bring technical skills, creativity and finance to the battle against pure plastics and have their place. For example, Innovera is a material developed by Litecosm, a brand under ISA TanTec, using plant-based proteins, biopolymers and recycled rubber.

For leather, this is a pivotal moment. Our material is not a luxury by-product but an exemplar of circularity: turning waste from the meat industry into durable goods of real value. It can stand proudly beside other natural materials as society searches for more responsible ways of living.

Equally important are the crafts that work with these materials. “Modernity” eliminates them in the name of efficiency, but craft skills still provide millions of jobs worldwide — jobs with soul, in which making, maintaining and repairing objects bring both dignity and livelihood. They connect individuals to tangible outcomes and communities to shared heritage. In an age where too much work feels abstract, this matters.

A renaissance depends on us seizing the moment

A renaissance is possible. But it depends on consumers and on us seizing the moment. Consumers must reject the false economy of disposables and demand products that last. As an industry, we must ensure leather is transparent, responsible and visibly part of the solution.

The future is indeed coming fast and not in the sequence we once imagined. I thought I would be too old to see the turning point. Instead, I find myself living through it. And if we act wisely, this wrong-ordered future might yet bring about the right kind of renewal, one that reinstates natural materials at the heart of sustainable living and with them meaningful work.

Michael Redwood

Leather chemist, writer, and advisor on responsible leather manufacturing and material strategy. This article was originally written for ILM.